Iran In Brief

Archive: August 2009

ISIS Analysis of August 2009 IAEA Iran Report

August 28, 2009

Centrifuges increase; Rate of LEU production steady; progress on inspection requests at Arak and Natanz; no progress on possible military dimensions.

August 2009 IAEA Safeguards Report on Iran

August 28, 2009

The IAEA has released its long awaited August 2009 Safeguards report on Iran. There has been a great degree of anticipation regarding this particular issue because of the reported halt in the increase of the number of centrifuges at Natanz which had been steadily growing since the public revelation of the Iranian nuclear program back in 2003. Expert opinions… Read More ›

Update on the Arak Heavy Water Reactor in Iran

August 25, 2009

On August 11, 2009, ISIS released a report on Iran’s IR-40 heavy water reactor at Arak, which is currently under construction.  The report raised several questions regarding the reactor’s planned fuel and the status of its construction.  Since the release of that report, ISIS has received additional information on these issues, shedding more light on the origin of the… Read More ›

Is Iran relenting on nuclear talks?

August 18, 2009

The BBC and other media outlets are reporting today that Ali Asghar Soltanieh, Iran’s Ambassador to UN Missions in Vienna, including the IAEA, has indicated Iran’s readiness to participate in talks with the West “based on mutual respect” and “without preconditions.” Foreign Policy’s blog , The Cable has some excellent early analysisRead More ›

August 2009 CRS report on Iran’s nuclear program

August 17, 2009

On August 11, 2009 the Congressional Research Service (CRS) released its latest report authored by Paul Kerr on Iran’s nuclear program and related ongoing issues.

You can find the full CRS report here: Congressional Research Service report on Iran, August 11, 2009

Read More ›

Game theory tells us when Iran gets a bomb.  Or maybe not….

August 17, 2009

The New York Times magazine has a fascinating profile of NYU political science professor Bruce Bueno de Mesquita and his computer-based predictive model for determining whether and when events will occur.  On Iran getting the bomb, his model tells us that:

“as the computer model ran forward in time, through 2009 and into 2010, positions… Read More ›

INR’s Flawed Assumptions?

August 12, 2009

The Federation of American Scientists posted this week a series of Qs and As obtained via a FOIA request that the group made of answers submitted for the record by Dennis Blair, Director of National Intelligence.  The questions were taken during Blair’s February 12, 2009 testimony before the Senate… Read More ›

Mysteries Deepen Over Status of Arak Reactor Project

August 11, 2009

ISIS takes a close look at the various questions regarding Iran’s IR 40 heavy water reactor at Arak which has been under construction since June 2004.
The reactor’s operation and potential to produce significant amounts of weapons-grade plutonium are years away but the timeline is narrowing and several outstanding questions and issues remain.
Among the uncertainties… Read More ›

NYT gets inside U.S. Iran policy

August 4, 2009

Roger Cohen has a characteristically excellent, insidery piece in this Sunday’s NYT magazine detailing the Obama admin’s Iran policy deliberations, with a focus on the role of Dennis Ross.  It hints at some of the dysfunction one might expect of policy making on an issue with so many heavyweights—in addition to Ross, there is Bill Burns,… Read More ›

Sanctions on Iranian gasoline imports?

August 3, 2009

The New York Times is reporting today that sanctions on Iranian imports of gasoline are under consideration by the Obama Administration.  This looks to ISIS more like signaling than a bona fide threat to sanction Iran’s gasoline imports over the near term.  Not that such sanctions aren’t a real option, or potentially effective, but they represent… Read More ›