ISIS Iran Report

A deal for the LEU?

A deal for the LEU? photo

May 17, 2010

The news that Turkey and Brazil were successful in brokering a deal to send 1200 kg of Iran’s LEU stockpile is probably taking Washington by surprise (when ISIS staff spoke with DC officials recently, there was not a great deal of optimism that they would be successful).  One question now is whether 1200 kg is still enough to make everyone happy.  At the time the deal was offered, in October 2009, this amounted to approximately 75 percent of Iran’s stock of low enriched uranium.  We won’t have the latest IAEA report until the end of the month, but based on past production, Iran may now have closer to 2300 kg, leaving it with just enough for a breakout, however unlikely that is.  Given the difficulty of passing a new UN Security Council Resolution and the broader desire to get engagement back on track, Washington might just go along to get along.

Update: See the ISIS critical review of the proposed deal at Iran’s Proposed LEU deal:  Skeptical but Awaiting Clarification

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